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Bent Flyvbjerg is a Danish economic geographer and professor renowned for his megaprojects and risk management research. He is a leading expert on project planning and execution. Dan Gardner is a Canadian journalist and author known for his work on psychology, risk, and decision-making.

Flyvberg built a database of over 16,000 projects from 120 fields in 136 different countries. This book brings together his findings from the analysis of that database.

Unlike many books on project management, Agile, and building products I have read over the years, this book’s insights are based on data and analysis. The authors found that only 8.5% of projects deliver on time and within budget. 0.5% of projects are on time, on budget AND on benefits (they do what they set out to do). 

Aware that projects often overrun on time and cost, most people put a 20% buffer in their budget and roadmap. According to the data, this is, in fact, ridiculously optimistic and almost pointless in terms of a means of managing risk. Most building projects have a 62% cost overrun (IT projects are worse). But it’s even worse than that as the data from Flyvberg’s analysis says the overruns do not follow a normal distribution. IT projects have fat tails. 18% of IT projects have overruns of over 50%, and for those projects, the average overrun is 477% (so many IT projects have higher overruns than even this). Gulp.

The book looks at what the rare exceptions do well. 

Most business books I read are opinion and spin and the insight they provide could have been a bullet-pointed list in a blog post. In this case, I think you really need to read the book in order to get the benefit of Flyvberg’s research, but I have made a small attempt at summarising it below.

  • Focus on Planning: The book emphasises that thorough planning is crucial for the success of any large project. Rushing into execution without detailed planning often leads to delays and cost overruns. They use the mantra “Think slow, Act fast”.
  • Understanding the “Iron Law”: Flyvbjerg introduces the “Iron Law of Megaprojects,” which often takes longer and costs more than expected while delivering less than promised. Awareness of this tendency is critical to mitigating risks.
  • Importance of Front-End Effort: Investing more time and resources in the early stages of a project (the front-end) pays off in the long run. This includes clearly defining objectives, understanding potential challenges, and ensuring alignment among stakeholders.
  • Avoiding Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation: The authors discuss common cognitive biases that lead to overly optimistic project timelines and budgets. They advocate for a more realistic and data-driven approach to forecasting.
  • Learning from Successes and Failures: The book uses a wide range of case studies, from infrastructure projects like the Sydney Opera House to tech ventures like the iPhone, to illustrate lessons learned from both successful and failed projects.
  • Modularity and Flexibility: Successful projects often adopt a modular approach, breaking down the project into smaller, manageable components. This allows for flexibility and easier adjustments as the project progresses. There is much to learn from Agile methodolgies here.
  • Stakeholder Management: Effective communication and managing expectations among stakeholders is critical. Misalignment can lead to conflicts and derail a project.
  • Use of Reference Class Forecasting: The book advocates for the use of reference class forecasting, which involves comparing the project with similar ones that have been completed, to provide a more accurate prediction of costs and timelines.
  • Emphasis on Sustainability: There’s a strong focus on the importance of sustainability in project management, both in terms of environmental impact and long-term viability.
  • Practical Tools and Techniques: The authors provide practical tools and methodologies, such as the “Actionable Framework for Decision-Making,” to help project managers apply these principles in real-world scenarios.
  • Mindset Shift: Ultimately, the book calls for a shift in mindset from “finish fast” to “finish right,” urging project managers to prioritise quality and long-term success over short-term gains.

How Big Things Get Done is essential management reading.